The third round of the Mahomes Allen saga takes place this Sunday night, and even though it’s only October, feelings creep in of Saint Nicolas and a New Years’ Nightmare that was the grey tragic final chapter of on otherwise colorful story. Yellow and Red confetti flew, as tears of Stefon were locked into tomorrow’s vengeance. In a few days, Stefon Diggs and the Buffalo Bills will have their chance to earn their vengeance, at least a while, against Captain Pat and the Mahomsieans. Let’s break down the alien like galactic federation battle in the AFC this Sunday in the weekly HUMPDAYCHECKDOWN.

A Hill to Climb

The Bills were beaten this time last year at home in the dark, with no pulse in the stadium. As the 53 men on each side of battle entered the cavernous then New Era Field, the world watched as Josh Allen faltered in inclimate weather, and the Chiefs, strangely, played ball control and bullied the Bills around the greens until the final gun. Allen was able to spin a few gutsy rain balls in the gutter game, but for the most part the Chiefs dominated like a cool older brother in an 80s move. And Travis Kelce’s hair was immaculate.

Game to Go

With the final stage set for a place in the Super Bowl, they had their first opportunity to crown themselves atop the AFC and once again fell short in a very different fashion. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce each had themselves a day, and the Bills played it safe hitting 3 FGs in the first half. They would go down, and stay down, and even a few final scratches were thrown at the end, which apparently Chiefs Naish hasn’t forgotten about.

What Needs to Happen

This HUMPDAYCHECKDOWN is usually not as difficult to simplify. One cannot simply just sit on the sidelines and speak on the true nature of the game, but a keen understanding and study of the game enables us to understand it alongside the men on the field and in the box. I don’t pretend to know how to beat the Chiefs, though I did simplify it into a child-like equation last year-you can go back and check that out as it still stands. The simplicity is stopping Hill and Kelce, because you can’t stop Mahomes right?

The best I can do is extrapolate the data from the first 2 rounds if this multi-million dollar matchup. So check this out…

#1 – Bills Not Named #17 Must Rush for More than 42 Yards

In game one in Buffalo, it was a bit dicey weather wise, which certainly impacted the nature of the game. Both teams, new-ish to no fans in stands, played with a confused lackluster energy all night, but it was marked by the resounding presence of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. It is arguable this was his best game as a pro. On the other side, the Buffalo Bills combined for 41 yards other than Josh Allen. In game 2 at Arrowhead, in the AFC Championship, the Bills combined for 41 yards rushing.

Backs Devin Singletary and Zach Moss have been warm, and getting warmer. Can they stop dropping the football and have a grown man game on Sunday night?

#2 – Best Outa 10

In each of the first 2 matchups, the amount of drives (or Offensive possessions) were very close. 10 drives for Buffalo vs 9 in game 2 in AFC Champ, and 9 and 9 respectively in Buffalo. Obviously KC was able to have a higher rate of closing on these drives, but also scoring touchdowns.

In the combined first 2 games of this monumental matchup,

Chiefs have totaled 8 TDS and 9 FGs.

Bills have totaled 4 TDS and 5 FGs.

Out of 18 possessions, the Chiefs achieved points on 17/18. 8/18 for TDs.

Out of 19 possessions, the Bills achieved points on 9/19. 4/19 for TDs.

Buffalo will not only need to not play safe, but capitalize on every possession. An improved defense will help.

#3 – 3rd Downs Syndrome

In order for Buffalo to take KC down on their own grass, they will need to collectively be better on 3rd down. If you combine each of the 2 first games, an additional theme of what went wrong is diagnosed.

In the combined first 2 games of this monumental matchup,

Chiefs went 15/24 on 3rd down. That’s 62.5% on 3rd down.

Bills went 9/24 on 3rd down. That’s 37.5%.

Josh Allen, the Running Backs, and Offensive line will all need to grow together and improve on 3rd down to take down the Chiefs. The Bills new look defense will help this ratio.

#4 Josh Must Play More Efficiently

I don’t really care that much about stats, and you can fluff the numbers. Guys like Ryan, Stafford, Bradford put up stats. Guys like Mahomes, Brady, Brees win titles. The latter 3 that win titles do one thing great, amongst many others, and amongst strong stats. They win on 3rd down. The 3rd down pass win is one of the best feelings for an offense, and one of the worst for a defense, AND opposing offense. It forces the other team’s offense to sit their asses back down a minute, to wait their turn to get back out there. As I mentioned above, the Bills will need to do more and make more out of their possessions as a unit, but Josh Allen must also play better as an indiividual.

In game 1 Josh went 14/27 – 51.9%

In game 2 Josh went 28/48 – 58.3%

Allen has shown signs of growth already this season, but can he prove he’s ready to take a turn as the belt holder or not? The Bills additions on defense, should help limit Patrick Mahomes godly efficiency.

Star in the Sky

Last year the Tampa Bay Bucs were able to bully a Chiefs team limping into Super Bowl weekend (IN TAMPA) with top lineman out, along with the coaches son’s off field, yet very serious dilemmas. They too are fighting this year for the belt, so don’t expect them to come in lightly. Last week Patrick Mahomes tossed 2 touchdowns in underhand, and threw another 3 overhand. They put in new creative hijinx every week, and Andy Reid understands Sean McDermott’s PROCESS. Do we need to go over the Andy Reid coaching tree AGAIN?

Starlite Lotulelei Jr is a star, that no one has talked about, or at least not enough. He has sure’d up a defensive line that struggled last year against the Chiefs, failing to get to Mahomes hardly at all, and getting run down and beat up for 8 quarters. This isn’t abnormal for a Chiefs team used to putting up 50 and playing catchup. The Bills saw what the Bucs did last February and they immediately made moves to make a D-Line unlike any in Bills history. Never before have we seen so many blood-thirsty bulls on the defensive line.

Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, Ed Oliver, Mario Addison, Jerry Hughes and Boogie Bashem AND JUSTIN ZIMMMER have proven they aren’t someone to mess with as a unit. The LB crew is stout as well, and the defense has 2 gooseggs to their name. According to The Ringer, No other team other than the 09 and 17 Pats have ever done what the Bills defense did in the first quarter of the 2021 season. (Neither Pats team won the Super. Ravens, Eagles)

Buffalo now carries a plus-90 point differential on its opponents this year, becoming one of just three teams this millennium to hit that mark through the first four weeks of the season (joining the 2007 and 2019 Patriots)

Danny Kelly  – The Ringer – NFL Power Rankings: The Bills Are on an Absolute Heater

Why You Run the Ball.

Growing up you learn a few things playing QB. One thing that I can truly understand is the game within the game. The physical fight within the game. The mental fight within the game. You dictate. You are in control. Until you aren’t. Until your men begin to fall off. Until the fight in their eyes begins to melt into uncertainty. You can blow teams off the field with points, sure, but great teams… they make you REMEMBER when you played them. Win or lose.

Brandon Staley understands that and I hope his message rings true in the Bills camp this Sunday night at Arrowhead. Stay tuned Saturday for the Weekly BLUEMAFIA PREGAME SHOW where I’ll give my final thoughts and game notes leading into the game, and publish for pregame viewing. Sunday come back for my final predictions in the #PREGAMEDUMP where I will drop the final predictions leading into kickoff.

GOBILLS.